Iraq seeks major OPEC+ quota increase during capacity review, Bloomberg reports
September 9, 2026
Iraq is seeking a major increase in its OPEC+ oil production quota, with Baghdad reportedly asking the producer alliance to recognize a future production capacity of up to 6 million barrels per day (bpd). The request comes as OPEC+ conducts a major review of members’ sustainable oil production capacity.
According to a Bloomberg report, Iraq wants future OPEC+ production targets to be based on a capacity of 6 million barrels per day, a significant increase from its current production ceiling.
For September and October, Iraq’s current OPEC+ oil production quota stands at approximately 4.431 million barrels per day.
Iraq Pushes for Higher OPEC+ Production Quota
Iraq’s request could become an important issue for the OPEC+ oil market, particularly as the group reassesses the production capacity of its members.
The proposed 6 million bpd baseline would give Iraq considerably more room to increase crude oil production under future OPEC+ agreements. However, recognizing such a high capacity could face resistance because independent estimates suggest Iraq’s sustainable production capability is lower.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates Iraq’s sustainable oil production capacity at around 4.9 million barrels per day.
This difference between Iraq’s requested 6 million bpd capacity and external estimates could make negotiations within the producer alliance more challenging.
Iraq Oil Production Hit by Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
Iraq’s actual crude oil output has recently been well below its requested capacity level.
According to a Bloomberg survey, Iraq produced an average of approximately 2.98 million barrels per day in August as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict affected oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping routes.
The disruption highlights the gap between Iraq’s potential production capacity and its recent actual output.
Any prolonged disruption to regional oil transportation could continue to influence global crude oil prices, OPEC+ policy, Middle East oil supplies and energy market volatility.
OPEC+ Conducting Major Capacity Review
OPEC+ has appointed an external consultant to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of its member countries.
The capacity assessment is expected to be completed by the end of September, with oil ministers scheduled to ratify the findings in November.
The review could have significant implications for future OPEC+ production quotas because capacity assessments may influence how individual members are assigned production targets.
For Iraq, the outcome could determine whether Baghdad receives a substantially higher production baseline in future OPEC+ agreements.
Iraq-OPEC Tensions Could Increase
Iraq has previously expressed frustration over its production quota and has reportedly threatened to leave OPEC if its production allowance is not increased sufficiently.
A significant disagreement over Iraq’s future capacity could therefore create additional pressure within the OPEC+ alliance.
Iraq is one of the world's major oil producers and relies heavily on crude oil revenues. A higher production quota could potentially allow the country to increase exports and generate additional oil revenue, provided market conditions and infrastructure allow it to raise output.
What This Means for Oil Prices
The potential increase in Iraq’s OPEC+ quota could become an important factor for WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil and global oil prices.
If OPEC+ recognizes significantly higher production capacity for Iraq, the market could interpret the move as a potential source of additional crude supply. Greater production availability could place pressure on oil prices if additional barrels enter the global market faster than demand increases.
However, the immediate impact will depend on several factors, including actual Iraqi production, OPEC+ compliance, Middle East geopolitical developments, Strait of Hormuz disruptions and global oil demand.
Key Takeaways for Oil Traders and Investors
Iraq is seeking an OPEC+ production capacity baseline of 6 million bpd.
Iraq’s current September-October production ceiling is about 4.431 million bpd.
Iraq produced around 2.98 million bpd in August, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The IEA estimates Iraq’s sustainable production capacity at about 4.9 million bpd.
OPEC+ is reviewing the maximum sustainable production capacity of its members.
The capacity review is expected to be completed by the end of September and ratified in November.
A higher Iraqi quota could affect global oil supply and crude oil prices.
Continued tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran remain a key risk for energy markets.
Iraq’s quota dispute could add further pressure to the OPEC+ production agreement.
Iraq Oil Quota Increase: Market Outlook
The OPEC+ capacity review will be closely watched by oil traders, commodity investors and energy markets. The final assessment could influence Iraq’s future production quota and potentially reshape supply expectations within the wider OPEC+ framework.
For oil markets, the key question is whether Iraq can secure recognition of its proposed 6 million barrels per day production capacity and how quickly any higher quota could translate into actual crude production.
With geopolitical risks still affecting Middle East energy flows, the outcome of the OPEC+ review could become an important catalyst for Brent oil prices, WTI crude prices and the global energy market in the months ahead.