Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Rebounds as Hormuz Risks Ease, Gas Eyes $3
August 28, 2026
Oil prices are rebounding while natural gas maintains a bullish technical structure as investors assess improving Strait of Hormuz diplomacy, constrained Gulf energy supplies and the latest U.S. inventory data. The combination of geopolitical developments, crude oil supply risks and natural gas fundamentals is keeping energy markets firmly in focus. The source article was published August 28, 2026.
Oil Market Outlook: Hormuz Diplomacy Eases Immediate Supply Fears
Crude oil prices remain sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, even as diplomatic efforts appear to reduce some immediate concerns about supply disruptions. Iran is reportedly preparing to allow broader maritime traffic, but actual shipping activity remains well below normal levels.
Kpler data showed that only seven commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 17 the previous day and a 10-day average of 15. The subdued shipping activity means WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices remain vulnerable to renewed supply disruptions and geopolitical escalation.
The situation is also creating uncertainty for the global oil market, energy prices and commodity markets, as traders continue to monitor Middle East developments and the potential impact on global crude oil supplies.
OPEC+ Supply Constraints Keep Oil Prices Supported
The ability of OPEC+ to restore global oil supply remains limited. According to the source, the group's share of global oil production declined from above 48% before the war to around 40% in July as Gulf oil production and exports were restricted.
Meanwhile, relatively low Chinese crude oil imports are providing some demand-side relief against Middle East supply disruptions. This creates a mixed outlook for the oil price forecast, with supply constraints supporting crude prices while softer Chinese demand could limit further gains.
U.S. Oil Inventories Show a Mixed Picture
The latest U.S. petroleum inventory data also provide mixed signals for the WTI oil forecast and crude oil market outlook.
Commercial U.S. crude oil inventories stood at approximately 428.9 million barrels for the week ended August 21. Gasoline and distillate inventories declined, while particularly low distillate stocks continued to point toward tightness in the diesel and jet fuel markets.
The inventory picture means traders are watching not only crude oil stocks but also refined petroleum products, fuel demand and U.S. energy supply conditions.
Natural Gas Forecast: $3 Target Comes Into FocusThe natural gas price forecast remains constructive as U.S. storage levels provide a comfortable domestic supply backdrop while global LNG markets remain vulnerable.
U.S. working natural gas in storage increased to 3,184 Bcf, rising 15 Bcf from the previous week. The increase provides additional domestic supply comfort, although fragile global LNG conditions continue to create uncertainty for international natural gas markets.
Global LNG supply vulnerabilities remain important because weak Qatari LNG exports, limited Gulf shipping availability and constrained refined-fuel supplies continue to create challenges for the global energy market.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Natural gas is trading around $2.92 on the four-hour chart after breaking above a descending trendline and holding above the previous $2.87-$2.90 resistance zone. That area is now acting as an important support region.
Natural gas is also trading above its 50-EMA at $2.84 and 100-EMA at $2.83, supporting the current bullish technical structure.
The RSI is around 60, indicating positive momentum without moving into an extreme overbought area. Key upside resistance levels are $2.94, $2.99 and $3.06, while support is located around $2.90-$2.87, $2.81, $2.75 and $2.67.
A sustained move above $2.94 could put the $2.99-$3.06 resistance zone into focus. Conversely, a break below $2.87 could expose the $2.81 area.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: $85.73 Remains the Key Breakout LevelWTI crude oil is trading near $83.28 after rebounding from the $80.05 support zone. The recovery also pushed prices above the 100-EMA at $82.85, while the 50-EMA near $83.27 is currently acting as an important short-term technical reference.
The $83.26 level is a major short-term pivot for the WTI oil price forecast. A sustained move above this level could strengthen the recovery, while the next major resistance is $85.73.
Additional resistance levels are $87.71, while key downside support levels are $80.05, $77.84 and $76.50.
For the bullish scenario to gain stronger confirmation, WTI needs to break and hold above $85.73. If price remains above $83.26, buyers could attempt another move toward $85.73. A rejection could instead send crude oil back toward the $80.05 support area.
Brent Crude Oil Forecast: Resistance Near $88.50-$89.23Brent crude oil is trading around $88.37, following a rebound from the $84.89 support zone. However, the recovery is approaching a significant technical resistance area.
The 50-EMA stands near $88.84, while the 100-EMA is around $88.45 and horizontal resistance is located at $89.23. The descending channel also adds resistance to the current Brent crude oil price action.
The next upside resistance levels are $91.31 and $94.68, while support levels are $84.89 and $81.47. The RSI near 50 indicates that momentum is normalizing after the previous oversold conditions.
Energy Market Outlook
The broader oil and natural gas market outlook remains highly dependent on three major factors: Strait of Hormuz developments, global energy supply constraints and U.S. inventory trends.
For crude oil traders, continued restrictions on Gulf production and shipping could keep WTI and Brent prices supported, while any meaningful improvement in maritime traffic could reduce the immediate geopolitical risk premium.
For natural gas, the technical structure remains bullish above the $2.87-$2.90 support zone, with the psychological $3.00 level emerging as a major market target.