Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Hormuz Talks Offer Hope as U.S. Crude Stocks Rise
August 26, 2026
Natural gas and crude oil prices remain under pressure as diplomatic talks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz offer cautious hope for energy markets, while rising U.S. crude inventories add another bearish signal for oil prices.
Energy markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Talks between Iran and Oman have raised hopes that navigation restrictions could eventually ease, but physical shipping activity remains severely limited.
At the same time, a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories is weighing on the WTI crude oil price outlook, while natural gas traders are watching whether prices can break above a key technical resistance zone near $2.80.
Oil Market News: Hormuz Talks Ease Supply Concerns
Negotiations between Iran and Oman have provided some optimism that energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz could gradually improve.
However, the physical flow of energy remains heavily constrained. Kpler data indicated that only five cargo vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, compared with an average of around 10 vessels per day.
The continued restrictions highlight the uncertainty facing global crude oil supply chains.
Iran has also blacklisted dozens of vessels accused of violating its rules. The restrictions have reportedly prompted several refiners and an international energy company to avoid affected vessels because of potential penalties, detention risks and cargo seizures.
These developments remain important for the crude oil forecast, because prolonged shipping disruptions could continue to support an oil risk premium even if diplomatic negotiations make progress.
U.S. Crude Inventories Add Bearish Pressure
The latest U.S. oil inventory data are providing a counterweight to geopolitical supply concerns.
The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by approximately 4.2 million barrels.
Rising crude inventories generally indicate weaker near-term demand or greater domestic supply availability, creating a potentially bearish factor for WTI oil prices.
The increase in U.S. crude stocks comes as traders assess whether geopolitical supply risks are strong enough to offset improving domestic oil fundamentals.
For the oil market, the combination of higher U.S. crude inventories, Hormuz uncertainty and Middle East geopolitical risk could keep volatility elevated.
Natural Gas Forecast: Supply Risks Remain in Focus
The natural gas price forecast is also being influenced by global energy disruptions.
Although international LNG markets remain tight, U.S. natural gas supplies are comparatively well supported.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects LNG exports to reach approximately 17.4 Bcf/d by the end of October, while U.S. natural gas production could increase toward 111.2 Bcf/d.
The combination of strong domestic production and increasing LNG export capacity is an important factor for the U.S. natural gas market outlook.
However, global LNG supply remains vulnerable because of disruptions affecting major exporters.
Qatar LNG Disruptions Increase Global Energy Risk
Global LNG trade from Qatar has fallen sharply since the conflict with Iran began.
According to the information cited in the report, Qatar shipped only 18 LNG cargoes compared with 509 during the comparable period a year earlier, representing a dramatic decline in LNG flows.
U.S. LNG exports have helped compensate for part of the lost supply, but shipping routes toward Europe remain significantly below normal seasonal levels.
This creates an unusual situation for the global natural gas market: U.S. supplies remain relatively strong, while international LNG availability and transportation remain vulnerable.
Any further deterioration in Middle East shipping conditions could therefore increase volatility across natural gas prices, LNG prices and European gas markets.
Natural Gas Technical AnalysisNatural gas recently rebounded from approximately $2.70 and is now testing a descending trendline around $2.80-$2.81.
This area has become an important technical resistance zone for Natural Gas futures and NG price action.
Natural gas is currently trading above:
50 EMA: approximately $2.77
100 EMA: approximately $2.76
Immediate resistance: $2.80-$2.81
Next resistance: $2.84
Major resistance: $2.88
Immediate support: $2.77
Additional support: $2.70
Lower support: $2.67 and $2.64
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 55, suggesting improving momentum without reaching overbought conditions.
Natural Gas Price Outlook
A sustained move above $2.81 could strengthen the bullish natural gas setup and potentially open the way toward $2.84-$2.88.
Conversely, failure to break the $2.80-$2.81 resistance zone could bring sellers back into the market, with attention returning to $2.77 and $2.70.
For traders, the $2.81 level remains a key area to monitor for a potential natural gas breakout.
WTI Crude Oil Technical AnalysisWTI crude oil has experienced significantly stronger selling pressure.
The WTI crude oil price broke below the important $80.82 support level, reaching approximately $80.26 on the four-hour chart.
The bearish move was reinforced by a break below key exponential moving averages:
50 EMA: $83.63
100 EMA: $82.92
Broken support: $80.82
Current price area: around $80.26
Next support: $77.86
Lower support: $74.38
Resistance: $80.82
Additional resistance: $84.03
EMA resistance zone: $82.92-$83.63
The WTI RSI has fallen to around 29, placing the market in oversold territory.
An oversold RSI can increase the possibility of a short-term technical rebound, but it does not automatically signal a lasting trend reversal.
WTI Oil Price Forecast
The near-term WTI crude oil outlook remains bearish below $80.82.
A short-term oversold rebound could develop after the sharp decline, but oil bulls would need to reclaim the $82.92-$84.03 resistance area to demonstrate stronger upside momentum.
If selling pressure continues, the next major downside levels to watch are $77.86 and $74.38.
Therefore, traders are likely to focus on the interaction between geopolitical developments, U.S. crude inventories and key WTI technical levels.
Oil and Natural Gas Forecast: What Traders Should WatchThe energy market is currently being driven by several competing forces.
1. Strait of Hormuz Developments
Any improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil and LNG markets.
2. U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
The 4.2-million-barrel inventory increase represents a bearish fundamental factor for WTI crude oil.
3. Iran Shipping Restrictions
Continued vessel restrictions could limit energy transportation and maintain supply concerns.
4. U.S. Natural Gas Production
Higher U.S. natural gas production could limit domestic price gains if supply growth outpaces demand.
5. LNG Exports
Rising U.S. LNG exports could tighten the domestic natural gas balance while supporting America's role in global LNG supply.
6. Qatar LNG Supply
Continued disruption to Qatari LNG exports could increase global energy-market volatility.
7. Key Technical Levels
Natural gas traders are watching $2.80-$2.81, while WTI crude oil traders are focused on $80.82 and the $82.92-$84.03 resistance zone.
Market OutlookThe oil and natural gas market outlook remains highly volatile as geopolitical developments compete with changing supply fundamentals.
For crude oil, rising U.S. inventories and weakening technical momentum are bearish factors, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to create upside supply risk.
For natural gas, U.S. production remains strong, but disruptions to global LNG flows could provide support if international demand for American LNG increases.
The key takeaway for traders is that geopolitical risk, U.S. inventory data, LNG exports, natural gas production and technical price levels are likely to remain the major drivers of energy prices in the near term.